Mr. Vladimir Orlov,Director Pir Centre and editor-in-chief of "Security Index"
Q1. Russia and India are holding an intensive strategic dialogue on key issues, including military-technical cooperation and international issues. In which fields is this dialogue most successful? Which aspects need intensifying the dialogue? What can we do to improve these weak points?
A. India and Russia present a unique example of two large states, with activist foreign policies and high stakes in the international system, sustaining a close and cordial bilateral relationship spanning several decades. Today, India and Russia are strategic partners. What this means is that we see our relationship in a longer-term perspective, unaffected by tactical or short-term considerations. Our geo-political interests have always had much in common.
Q1. Russia and India are holding an intensive strategic dialogue on key issues, including military-technical cooperation and international issues. In which fields is this dialogue most successful? Which aspects need intensifying the dialogue? What can we do to improve these weak points?
A. India and Russia present a unique example of two large states, with activist foreign policies and high stakes in the international system, sustaining a close and cordial bilateral relationship spanning several decades. Today, India and Russia are strategic partners. What this means is that we see our relationship in a longer-term perspective, unaffected by tactical or short-term considerations. Our geo-political interests have always had much in common.
Defence cooperation is a vital element in our strategic partnership. Over 50% of the equipment used by Indian armed forces today is of Russian/Soviet origin. Significantly, while the highly militarized Soviet Union with a flourishing defence industry helped India with its needs during the cold war period, it was India that in some ways rescued the collapsing Russian defence industry after the demise of the Soviet Union by placing huge orders worth billions of dollars for the Indian Navy, Air Force and the Army. Today, over US$ 10 billion worth of defence contracts are in various stages of implementation. These include three additional Russian frigates and supply of additional SU-30 aircraft, T-90 tanks and MI 17 helicopters. The acquisition of advanced Russian weaponry system by India also helps to open markets for Russian military equipment in other countries, as India has the credentials of a discerning and quality-conscious buyer. The future of India’s strategic partnership with Russia in this domain lies in joint research and development, production and marketing of defence equipment, a prime example of which is the supersonic BrahMos missile, the most advanced missile of its kind in the world today. As regards the weak points in this area, there are always bound to be a few procedural and technical problems, like product support and cost escalations, in such an intensive and diverse defence relationship. Without detracting from our close and trusted defence partnership, we are making continuous efforts to resolve the difficulties.
Atomic energy and space are two strategic domains in which the prospects of cooperation are considerable. India has major expansion plans for nuclear power. The aim is to produce 20000 MW of nuclear power by the year 2020. Russia is currently constructing the Kudankulam nuclear power plant (2 units of 1000 MW each), and we have signed a Memorandum of Intent for additional 4 units. We favour greater Russian participation in this sector as we see Russia as a reliable partner. In the area of space, important agreements have been signed including on India’s participation in Russia’s Glonass system. These agreements are recognition of India’s growing capabilities in the space sector and when implemented, will establish vital linkages between our countries in the field of space communication.
On international issues, our strategic relationship is characterized by our shared thinking on how international relations should be structured in a multi-polar perspective, with the United Nations as the universally accepted instrument for resolving conflicts, and rejection of variable standards in facing contemporary challenges. On the issue of international terrorism, in particular, we have a close identity of views. International terrorism cannot be combated on the basis of different yardsticks for different countries. It has to be a coherent collective effort. India and Russia are both victims of unspeakable terrorist acts perpetrated by extremist groups. We have a common stake in ensuring the elimination of this menace through bilateral cooperation as well as at the regional and international levels. Both India and Russia border the epicenter of global terrorism. Our regular discussions with Russia in appropriate bilateral or international fora on issues such as developments in the Middle East, Central and East Asia, energy issues and multilateral trade continue. The dialogue between India, Russia and China in the trilateral format has added a new dimension to our overall relationship. So India and Russia have wide-ranging consultations on all important international issues of mutual concern and these will continue as part of our overall strategic partnership.
Q2. You have come to Moscow and can evaluate afresh perspectives of India-Russian cooperation in the field of energy, including oil & gas, and nuclear energy. Which new projects do you see here? How, in your view, legally and practically, should such cooperation move ahead? What does India expect from Russia?
A. Energy security is now a big strategic issue. With its immense oil and gas resources, Russia is bound to play a critical role in global energy security in the years ahead. India is already the fourth largest importer of oil and gas in the world. A billion strong India, growing at the rate of 9%, has a vital stake in energy security. President Putin has defined energy security as not only security of supply but also security of demand. In that equation, India is a major guarantor of future energy security on the demand side! We want to go beyond Sakhalin-1 in terms of investment in Russia’s oil and gas sector and are discussing additional opportrunities both at the governmental and company levels. If one strong pillar of our strategic partnership is the defence cooperation, the other pillar should be economic cooperation, with energy at its core. The future oil and gas resources of Russia, which will provide the sinew to Russia as a global energy super power, will come from eastern parts of Russia. The Asian dimension of Russia’s future oil and gas expansion can include India as a strategic option.
We have, of course, stepped up oil and gas exploration within India, and are trying to attract international oil companies to make bids for the blocs on offer. We would want Russian oil companies to be more active in India. A good bargain would be upstream opportunities for India in Russia and downstream opportunities for Russia in India. We are trying to get access to equity oil by investing in oil fields in several countries. India, Iran and Pakistan are engaged in complex negotiations on a gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan. We have also shown interest in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. The materialization of the project to build a Russia-Bulgaria-Greece pipeline could possibly see us as a beneficiary. Practical swap arrangements with others can also be made for any Indian share of Russian oil and gas, which might be expensive to transport to India. In the India-Russia context, “energy security” would mean an imaginative approach by the two countries to strengthen the economic aspect of their strategic relations through an energy partnership.
In the sphere of cooperation in the civilian nuclear field, Russia is currently the only country which is building nuclear power plants in India. Russia took this very important decision in favor of a non-NPT country because Russia had confidence in India and saw the strategic value of building a partnership in this sensitive area with a major country like India. If in future the doors open for international cooperation in India’s civilian nuclear sector, Russia, with already a foot in the door, is well placed to be the earliest beneficiary. As I have mentioned earlier, during President Putin’s visit to India in January 2007, we signed a Memorandum of Intent on supply of four more nuclear reactors to India.
Q3. In August, a meeting of participant-countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (in which India has Observer status) was held in Bishkek. Which aspects of the SCO activities are most important for India? What, in your view, is the role of SCO in ensuring cooperation between the participant-countries? Does India plan to apply for the membership in this organization?
A. It was only in July 2005 that India was admitted as Observer to the SCO at the Astana Summit, and we have since regularly attended its meetings. India supports the objective of the SCO to foster economic cooperation, ensure stability in the region and combat terrorism and extremism. SCO has mooted initiatives on increasing regional trade, development of transportation networks and energy cooperation. It is our firm belief that economic cooperation and development in an environment of security and stability will be beneficial for our region as a whole. With our growing economy and our large market, as well as our geographical proximity to the region, India can be a natural and fruitful partner. India is keen to play a constructive and active role in the SCO, and will duly consider the question of India’s membership of the organization once the SCO has sorted out the relevant procedural issues for expansion.
Q4. With the signing of the 123 Agreement between India and the USA, cooperation in the nuclear field between the two countries is crossing over to a practical level. What will be next practical steps in order to see the agreement fulfilled? How is this cooperation going to be realized in practice? What does India intend to gain through this deal?
A. The text of the India-US 123 Agreement on civilian nuclear energy cooperation was finalized in July 2007. The purpose of the Agreement is to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation between India and USA covering nuclear reactors and aspects of the associated nuclear fuel cycle. In order to make cooperation in civil nuclear energy a reality, India will need to further negotiate an India-specific safeguards agreement with the IAEA. On the basis of the Indo-US bilateral Agreement and the finalization of an India-specific Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is expected to adapt its guidelines to enable international commerce with India in civil nuclear energy and all dual use technologies associated with it. The US Administration will then secure requisite approval from the US Congress. The completion of these next steps will mark the practical realization of this initiative, and would be the beginning of the end of the technology-denial regimes against India that have been in existence for over three decades.
India regards international civil nuclear cooperation as potentially most important for energy security and for an environmentally sustainable pattern of development. Though India’s own, unique, three-stage thorium-based nuclear power programme holds immense promise for the future, we need to explore and exploit every possible source of energy in the meantime. Nuclear energy is a logical choice for India. Indigenous supplies of uranium are limited and, therefore, at least in the short term, we need to source uranium supply from outside.
If international cooperation becomes available, we hope to double our current target of 20,000 MW of nuclear power generation by the year 2020. Besides USA, we intend to carry forward our cooperation with other leading countries in this field, in particular with major nuclear suppliers such as Russia and France. Apart from its direct impact on our nuclear energy programme, this Agreement will have major spin-offs for the development of our industries. High technology trade with all technologically advanced countries will expand rapidly.
